Historical Vetting|Wind Capacity
Why this criterion? This criterion flags scenarios that assume a deployment of total wind capacity that is inconsistent with near-term market outlooks.
This technology is available at scale and has short project lead times, meaning that there are no fundamental obstacles to fast deployment. Its near-term growth can be estimated based on today's installed capacity and near-term market outlooks. While these estimates have their limitations, they can be used to set broad ranges of near-term feasibility.
Why this threshold? Existing capacities in 2024 are reported by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA, 2025). Yearly additions for 2025 are estimated in a market outlook by the GWEC (2024).
The outlook is based on input from regional wind associations, government targets, tender results, announced auction plans, available project pipelines, and input from industry experts.
Based on the existing capacity data and the market outlook, we assume the following global thresholds for 2025:
• Lower threshold, failed vetting: 10% less than capacities operational in 2024, plus 33.75% of 2025 additions from the market outlook.
• Upper threshold, failed vetting: 10% more than capacities operational in 2024, plus 220.0% of 2025 additions from the market outlook.
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Sources
| Identifier | Bibliographic information | Links |
|---|---|---|
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GWEC. Global Wind Report 2026. Global Wind Energy Council, Brussels, Belgium, 2024. | URL |
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IRENA. Renewable Capacity Statistics 2025. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, March 2025. ISBN 978-92-9260-652-7. | URL |