Why this criterion? This scenario reports crop-land land cover that is inconsistent with historical values. This is a concern because the underlying modelling likely makes false assumptions on land cover today and the efforts needed to reduce emissions while feeding the planet.
The thresholds are derived from these sources as follows: • 2010, 2015, and 2020: ±10% deviation for land cover and ±20% for crop-land cover. • 2025: ±20% deviation for land cover and ±30% for crop-land cover.
Note that these ranges not only give models some leeway to deviate, but also account for uncertainty in the underlying data sources. To further account for uncertainty in the historical values, the most permissible source of all sources for each variable, region, and period is used to set the threshold.
The threshold for 2025 is set to the value reported for 2020.
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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAOSTAT. Databases: Land Use, Land Cover, Emissions totals, Emissions from Forests, Emissions from Crops, Emissions from Livestock, Emissions from Fires, Emissions from Drained organic solids. 2026. FAOSTAT Database Recommended citation style per FAO: "FAO. [Year of last update]. [Name of database: Name of dataset]. [Accessed on DD Month YYYY]. [URL]. Licence: CC-BY-4.0.".
G. C. Hurtt, L. Chini, R. Sahajpal, S. Frolking, B. L. Bodirsky, K. Calvin, J. C. Doelman, J. Fisk, S. Fujimori, K. Klein Goldewijk, T. Hasegawa, P. Havlik, A. Heinimann, F. Humpenöder, J. Jungclaus, J. O. Kaplan, J. Kennedy, T. Krisztin, D. Lawrence, P. Lawrence, L. Ma, O. Mertz, J. Pongratz, A. Popp, B. Poulter, K. Riahi, E. Shevliakova, E. Stehfest, P. Thornton, F. N. Tubiello, D. P. van Vuuren, and X. Zhang. Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 13(11):5425–5464, 2020.