Historical Vetting|Emissions|CO2|AFOLU|Land
Why this criterion? This scenario reports CO2 emissions from forestry and other land use and land use change that are inconsistent with historical values. This is a concern because the underlying modelling likely makes false assumptions on the remaining GHG emissions budget and the mitigation effort required to reach net-zero emissions.
Why this threshold? Historical values for CO2 emissions from forestry and other land use and land use change are provided by Gasser (2020), Friedlingstein (2026), and Gasser (2023).
The thresholds are derived from these sources as follows:
• 2010, 2015, and 2020: ±20% deviation will lead to exclusion.
• 2025: ±30% deviation will lead to exclusion.
Note that these ranges not only give models some leeway to deviate, but also account for uncertainty in the underlying data sources. To further account for uncertainty in the historical values, the most permissible source of all sources for each variable, region, and period is used to set the threshold.
The threshold for 2025 is set to the value reported for 2020.
| Loading ITables v2.8.1 from the internet... (need help?) |
Reference data
| Dataset | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|
GCB-2025 |
Friedlingstein (2026) | Based on Friedlingstein (2026). |
Gasser-2020 |
Gasser (2020) | Based on Gasser (2020). |
OSCAR-GCB-2023 |
Gasser (2023) | Based on Gasser (2023). |
Sources
| Identifier | Bibliographic information | Links |
|---|---|---|
|
Thomas Gasser, Léa Crepin, Yann Quilcaille, Richard A. Houghton, Philippe Ciais, and Michael Obersteiner. Historical CO2 emissions from land use and land cover change and their uncertainty. Biogeosciences, 17(15):4075–4101, August 2020. | DOI |
|
Thomas Gasser and Gaurav Shrivastav. OSCAR contribution to the Global Carbon Budget 2023. 2023. | DOI |
|
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Kjetil Aas, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicolas Bellouin, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Carla F. Berghoff, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Nathan O. Collier, Thomas H. Colligan, Margot Cronin, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Matt P. Enright, Kazutaka Enyo, Michael Erb, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Filippa Fransner, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Jefferson Goncalves De Souza, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Bertrand Guenet, Özgür Gürses, Kirsty Harrington, Ian Harris, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Akihiko Ito, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Yawen Kong, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Charles Koven, Taro Kunimitsu, Xin Lan, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Zhu Liu, Claire Lo Monaco, Lei Ma, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Joe R. Melton, Natalie Monacci, Erwan Monier, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Jens D. Müller, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Lorna R. Nayagam, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nutzel, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Naiqing Pan, Sudhanshu Pandey, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Pierre Regnier, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Ingunn Skjelvan, T. Luke Smallman, Victoria Spada, Mohanan G., Sreeush, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Didier Swingedouw, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Xiangjun Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Erik van Ooijen, Guido R. van der Werf, Sebastiaan J. van de Velde, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Jiye Zeng. Global Carbon Budget 2025. Earth System Science Data, 18(5):3211–3288, May 2026. | DOI |