Historical Vetting|Emissions|CH4|AFOLU|Agriculture

Why this criterion? This scenario reports CH4 emissions from agriculture that are inconsistent with historical values. This is a concern because the underlying modelling likely makes false assumptions on the remaining GHG emissions budget and the mitigation effort required to reach net-zero emissions.

Why this threshold? Historical values for CH4 emissions from agriculture are provided by EDGAR Community GHG Database (2025), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2026), Gütschow (2025).

The thresholds are derived from these sources as follows:
• 2010, 2015, and 2020: ±20% deviation will lead to exclusion.
• 2025: ±30% deviation will lead to exclusion.

Note that these ranges not only give models some leeway to deviate, but also account for uncertainty in the underlying data sources. To further account for uncertainty in the historical values, the most permissible source of all sources for each variable, region, and period is used to set the threshold.

The threshold for 2025 is set to the value reported for 2020.

WorldGeneric regionsModel-native regions

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R5R9R10

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AIM 3.0C3IAM 3.0CGEM-ESM 1.0COFFEE 1.6GCAM 9.1GEM-E3 V2026IMACLIM 2.0IMAGE 3.4MEESA v1.4MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 2.1-R12MINES 0.1.0OPEN-PROM 2.2POLES 2.4REMIND-MAgPIE 3.7-4.14WITCH 6.0

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Reference data

Dataset	Source	Description
`EDGAR-2025`	EDGAR Community GHG Database (2025)	Based on EDGAR Community GHG Database (2025).
`EDGAR-2025-extrapol25`	EDGAR Community GHG Database (2025)	Data from EDGAR Community GHG Database (2025) extrapolated to 2025.
`FAOSTAT-2026`	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2026)	Based on Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2026).
`FAOSTAT-2026-extrapol25`	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2026)	Data from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2026) extrapolated to 2025.
`PRIMAP-2025-v2p7-HISTCR`	Gütschow (2025)	Based on Gütschow (2025). Uses HISTCR data, which is the country-reported priority scenario.
`PRIMAP-2025-v2p7-HISTCR-extrapol25`	Gütschow (2025)	Data from Gütschow (2025) extrapolated to 2025. Uses HISTCR data, which is the country-reported priority scenario.
`PRIMAP-2025-v2p7-HISTTP`	Gütschow (2025)	Based on Gütschow (2025). Uses HISTTP data, which is the third-party priority scenario.
`PRIMAP-2025-v2p7-HISTTP-extrapol25`	Gütschow (2025)	Data from Gütschow (2025) extrapolated to 2025. Uses HISTTP data, which is the third-party priority scenario.

Sources

Identifier	Bibliographic information	Links
`EDGAR-2025`	EDGAR Community GHG Database. EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) Community GHG Database. Dataset, 2025. A collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), comprising IEA-EDGAR CO\(_2\), EDGAR CH\(_4\), EDGAR N\(_2\)O, and EDGAR F-GASES version EDGAR_2025_GHG.
`FAOSTAT-2026`	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAOSTAT. Databases: Land Use, Land Cover, Emissions totals, Emissions from Forests, Emissions from Crops, Emissions from Livestock, Emissions from Fires, Emissions from Drained organic solids. 2026. FAOSTAT Database Recommended citation style per FAO: "FAO. [Year of last update]. [Name of database: Name of dataset]. [Accessed on DD Month YYYY]. [URL]. Licence: CC-BY-4.0.".	URL
`PRIMAP-2025-v2p7`	Johannes Gütschow, Daniel Busch, and Mika Pflüger. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2024) v2.7. September 2025.	DOI