Historical Vetting|Primary Energy|Gas
Why this criterion? This criterion flags scenarios that report gas primary energy production that is inconsistent with historical values.
This is a concern because the underlying modelling likely makes false assumptions on the mitigation effort required to reach net-zero emissions.
Why this threshold? Historical values are provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2025), where we assume that Primary Energy variables are given by the "total energy supply" reported by the IEA.
Based on this historical data, we assume the following global threshold for years 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025:
• Lower and upper threshold, failed vetting: ±20% deviation.
Note that these ranges not only give models some leeway to deviate, but also account for uncertainty in the underlying data sources.
The threshold for 2025 is derived using the 2023 value and the 2021–2023 growth rate.
To account for the COVID-19 shock, the threshold for 2020 is derived using both the reported value in 2020 and the value averaged over the period Jan 2018 until Dec 2022, taking whichever is more permissive for the scenario in question.
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Reference data
| Dataset | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|
EI-2023 |
EI (2023) | Based on EI (2023). |
EI-2023-extrapol25 |
EI (2023) | Data from EI (2023) linearly extrapolated to 2025. |
IEA-ESDB-20250610 |
IEA (2025) | Based on IEA (2025). Primary Energy variables are taken from the total energy supply reported by the IEA. |
IEA-ESDB-20250610-COVIDaveraged |
IEA (2025) | Data from IEA (2025) averaged over period Jan 2018 till Dec 2022 (to account for the idiosyncratic COVID-19 dip in 2020). Primary Energy variables are taken from the total energy supply reported by the IEA. |
IEA-ESDB-20250610-extrapol25 |
IEA (2025) | Data from IEA (2025) extrapolated to 2025 using the 2021-2023 average growth rate. Primary Energy variables are taken from the total energy supply reported by the IEA. |
Sources
| Identifier | Bibliographic information | Links |
|---|---|---|
|
IEA. Energy Statistics Data Browser. International Energy Agency, Paris, France, June 2025. | URL |
|
EI. Statistical Review of World Energy. 2023. | URL |