Historical Vetting|Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes
Why this criterion? This criterion flags scenarios that report CO₂ emissions in the energy supply, energy demand, and industry sectors that are inconsistent with historical values.
This is a concern because the underlying modelling likely makes false assumptions on the remaining GHG emissions budget and the mitigation effort required to reach net-zero emissions.
Why this threshold? Historical values are provided by the Community Emissions Data System (Hoesly, 2025).
Based on this historical data, we assume the following global threshold for years 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025:
• Lower and upper threshold, failed vetting: ±20% deviation.
Note that these ranges not only give models some leeway to deviate, but also account for uncertainty in the underlying data sources.
The threshold for 2025 is derived using the 2023 value and the 2022–2023 growth rate.
To account for the COVID-19 shock, the threshold for 2020 is derived using both the reported value in 2020 and the value averaged over the period Jan 2018 until Dec 2022, taking whichever is more permissive for the scenario in question.
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Reference data
| Dataset | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|
CEDS-2025 |
Hoesly (2025) | Based on Hoesly (2025). |
CEDS-2025-COVIDaveraged |
Hoesly (2025) | Data from Hoesly (2025) averaged over period Jan 2018 till Dec 2022 (to account for the idiosyncratic COVID-19 dip in 2020). |
CEDS-2025-extrapol25 |
Hoesly (2025) | Data from Hoesly (2025) linearly extrapolated to 2025 using the 2022-2023 average growth rate. |
Sources
| Identifier | Bibliographic information | Links |
|---|---|---|
|
Rachel Hoesly, Steven J Smith, Hamza Ahsan, Noah Prime, Patrick O'Rourke, Monica Crippa, Zbigniew Klimont, Diego Guizzardi, Leyang Feng, Colin Harkins, Brian McDonald, and Shuxiao Wang. CEDS v_2025_03_18 Aggregate Data. March 2025. | DOI |