Historical Vetting|Food Availability

Why this criterion? This scenario reports levels of food availability that are inconsistent with historical values. This is a concern because the underlying modelling likely makes false assumptions on the current state of food availability and the effort required to reach net-zero emissions while growing sufficient food for the world population.

Why this threshold? Historical values are provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2026).

The thresholds are derived from these sources as follows:
• 2010, 2015, and 2020: ±20% deviation will lead to exclusion.
• 2025: ±30% deviation will lead to exclusion.

Note that these ranges not only give models some leeway to deviate, but also account for uncertainty in the underlying data sources. To further account for uncertainty in the historical values, the most permissible source of all sources for each variable, region, and period is used to set the threshold.

The threshold for 2025 is set to the value reported for 2020.

WorldGeneric regionsModel-native regions

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R5R9R10

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AIM 3.0C3IAM 3.0CGEM-ESM 1.0COFFEE 1.6GCAM 9.1GEM-E3 V2026IMACLIM 2.0IMAGE 3.4MEESA v1.4MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 2.1-R12MINES 0.1.0OPEN-PROM 2.2POLES 2.4REMIND-MAgPIE 3.7-4.14WITCH 6.0

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Reference data

Dataset	Source	Description
`FAOSTAT-2026`	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2026)	Based on Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2026).
`FAOSTAT-2026-extrapol25`	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2026)	Data from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2026) extrapolated to 2025.

Sources

Identifier	Bibliographic information	Links
`FAOSTAT-2026`	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAOSTAT. Databases: Land Use, Land Cover, Emissions totals, Emissions from Forests, Emissions from Crops, Emissions from Livestock, Emissions from Fires, Emissions from Drained organic solids. 2026. FAOSTAT Database Recommended citation style per FAO: "FAO. [Year of last update]. [Name of database: Name of dataset]. [Accessed on DD Month YYYY]. [URL]. Licence: CC-BY-4.0.".	URL